Excellent question. My personal belief is that because the price of Bitcoin is currently in a multi-year wedge the resistance of which is a line running from the previous ATH of $20,000 through local tops of June 2019 of $14,000, February 2020 and the current about $10,000 and the supporting line of which runs through the local minimums of December 2018 and December 2019 and that has an apex somewhere in the beginning of 2021, we're unlinely to see a decisive breach of $10,000 any time soon. We will most likely visit the multi-year support at least once more before breaking the resistance. I don't think Bitcoin has ever rallied immediately after the mining reward halving.
Here's the multi-year wedge I'm talking about: